What’s on the minds of grain industry decision makers right now? Scott Wellcome, Director Grain Risk Management & Sourcing at GoodMills, shares his personal insights into this year’s European Commodities Exchange.
The European Commodities Exchange in Berlin sent one particularly revealing signal: not a single one of the 100 or so grain industry companies taking part was able to say that they’d had a successful year. The tone of the discussions ranged from cautious satisfaction to relief at having made it through in one piece. Amid the prevailing mood, though, there was one significant exception: the merger between Bunge and Viterra a year ago, which created one of the world’s biggest agribusiness groups, remained a major topic of discussion – not least because of the new company’s highly visible presence at the event.
But this new competitor on the global market wasn’t the only challenge that the industry insiders were talking about. One topic overshadowed all of the discussions: the sense of uncertainty that is spreading through the industry. The outlook for 2026 was dominated by questions surrounding the future of the grain business. Concerns also centred around the protracted war in Ukraine, as well as the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The EU Deforestation Regulation came up time and again, too: although the legislation does not affect the grain market directly, it will have a wide-ranging impact on trading as a whole.
Another major topic was the situation of farmers who are having to contend with persistently low prices. At present, it is hard to predict how they will respond: will they grow less or diversify the crops they sow? On top of all this, the industry is coming under pressure due to high energy and labour costs, as well as extremely high inflation in Europe. At GoodMills, our aim is to address these challenges by investing in technology. For instance, artificial intelligence has enabled us to improve quality controls for incoming grain, enhancing production efficiency in the process.
